Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-23 2.375988 2.784516 3.238367 3.779424 4.406373 5.109485 5.957348
2025-11-30 1.758242 2.307122 2.984230 3.878499 5.026010 6.446382 8.335227
2025-12-07 1.326549 1.912071 2.699686 3.831078 5.408408 7.522452 10.562824
2025-12-14 1.044041 1.630487 2.479543 3.788858 5.745663 8.547830 12.847772
2025-12-21 0.855094 1.432700 2.324437 3.786994 6.108063 9.626231 15.332312
2025-12-28 0.777599 1.385244 2.377182 4.093135 6.960629 11.523624 19.281941
2026-01-04 0.675034 1.273592 2.302916 4.173951 7.453520 12.911207 22.601332
2026-01-11 0.591731 1.177666 2.235112 4.247228 7.932393 14.321706 26.123182
2026-01-18 0.515638 1.079531 2.144706 4.260763 8.299253 15.574615 29.516600
2026-01-25 0.447062 0.982435 2.038736 4.224918 8.563243 16.666527 32.742504
2026-02-01 0.368224 0.849286 1.840454 3.976915 8.383217 16.911809 34.417124
2026-02-08 0.314055 0.758203 1.711414 3.845943 8.409894 17.541737 36.887599
2026-02-15 0.272587 0.689492 1.622161 3.793088 8.607186 18.567129 40.348914
2026-02-22 0.252240 0.666499 1.629881 3.954568 9.286983 20.665930 46.291858
2026-03-01 0.221822 0.612885 1.558991 3.927162 9.548737 21.925571 50.635216
2026-03-08 0.195257 0.563521 1.489427 3.890932 9.783865 23.155295 55.067372
2026-03-15 0.174314 0.524648 1.438644 3.891384 10.103674 24.610251 60.180128
2026-03-22 0.170694 0.532925 1.508865 4.206441 11.228761 28.038455 70.227052
2026-03-29 0.156869 0.509079 1.490726 4.289691 11.788258 30.209056 77.578371
2026-04-05 0.144210 0.486053 1.470844 4.365012 12.337926 32.421694 85.294997
2026-04-12 0.130738 0.457644 1.430994 4.378940 12.727898 34.287871 92.380352
2026-04-19 0.117192 0.426044 1.376395 4.342156 12.975370 35.824232 98.817451
2026-04-26 0.099027 0.374921 1.254273 4.087566 12.579735 35.649643 100.816551